What to know
- NY smashed its all-time daily COVID case record for the seventh time in just over a week last Friday as new state data clearly shows that vaccine efficacy is declining relative to infection, but not hospitalization.
- More than 44K NYers tested positive, Governor Kathy Hochul said, an increase of more than 6K over the course of Thursday; most of them were in NYC; hospital admissions across the country peaked at 4,700 on Friday, the highest since 3/9
- Yet officials say there is no reason to panic; yes, the large increases in infection alone are astounding, they say, but vaccines stand up to severe omicron infection, and state and city hospitals are prepared
New York has changed its COVID return-to-work policies for key workers as it faces a record-breaking stretch of omicron-driven viral infections, shortening the isolation deadline to five days to alleviate staff concerns, Governor Kathy Hochul said Friday.
The shortened window applies to essential workers who are both fully vaccinated and asymptomatic as well as to fully vaccinated workers who had mild symptoms that disappeared and no fever for 72 hours, Hochul said. They must also wear masks.
The tweak incorporates the latest guidance from the CDC, which shortened its recommended isolation window for healthcare professionals a day ago, and the milder infections with omicron, which knock out huge chunks of the workforce alone due to high positivity rates. Many such positive workers do not show symptoms or show mild symptoms and do not need medical treatment to recover.
Airlines United and Delta have been forced to cancel holiday flights due to the crowds, making flights stressful at the height of the holiday season.
Hospital leaders, including the head of the largest public health system in the United States, Dr. Mitchell Katz of NYC Health + Hospitals, says they are wary of staff shortages for similar reasons – and far more than they are concerned about an influx of people seriously ill with omicron. That’s what Hochul is trying to meet.
“We’re focused on making sure we can get people back to work,” Hochul said, noting that omicron’s circumstances are different from the unique threats the delta poses.
“This is a very, very contagious variant,” she acknowledged, but said, “This is not delta. This is omicron, which so far has shown that it is not as serious in its impact. This is not the same situation, as we had in March 2020 or even last winter’s increase. We have had more tests. We have had more options. “
Yet hospital admissions, especially among the unvaccinated, continue to rise, Hochul said – and her primary concern is to have sufficient hospital staff to treat them.
The governor’s Friday inpatient update included a 5% day-to-day increase in hospital admissions, which has now peaked at 4,700 and is at its highest level since mid-March. The 4,744 in total are still far from the 7,000 New Yorkers hospitalized with COVID this time last year, Hochul said.
The state’s most recent high number of daily deaths was around 71 (Hochul added 69 more to the rolling toll on Friday), and while some of the rising hospital admissions could add to the number of deaths, daily death rates remain mercifully below the devastating heights of the early pandemic. 800 New Yorkers died every 24 hours.
Both measurements need to be closely monitored, Hochul said, especially in the middle of a week where the state has broken its own COVID record at least half a dozen times.
As striking as the numbers have been in recent days, Thursday’s report from the state was still astonishing – 38,835 positive tests in just one day, an increase of 10,000 from the day before. Of these, 22,208 in New York City alone were at state expense, orders of magnitude greater than anything, whether the city or state faced omicron (although a true comparison with the number of cases during the initial COVID increase in spring 2020 is impossible because testing was limited).
In simpler terms – over the past week, about 1% of all New York City residents and 1% of all New York State residents have tested positive for COVID.
Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, says with the tools available to help prevent and combat COVID-19, “there really is no need to panic.”
New York, like many states, has seen hour-long queues for COVID testing amid rising national demand. Hochul says the state has sent 600,000 tests to New York City alone within the last 48 hours and is working to bring in more direct resources.
Five more test sites will open next week, one in each neighborhood. The state has also launched 37 new pop-ups and is planning 17 more in New York City.
Ultimately, officials say vaccinations will dampen the increases in hospitalizations and deaths associated with the omicron wave – and these measurements are a much bigger concern for them than infections alone. That’s why they are calling for calm at this time – and pushing vaccinations and COVID boosters for those who need them.
Hochul has remained convinced that there will be no new COVID-related shutdowns in New York in the midst of this explosive omicron rise, and although she acknowledges that omicron is more effective at avoiding vaccine protection when it comes to infections, state data shows , that it is not true with more serious cases.
The chart lines below, which are part of the state’s groundbreaking data reporting, clearly show that the decline in vaccination effectiveness against infection is far more pronounced than the decline in efficacy against hospitalization.
New daily cases over time after vaccination status
New daily admissions over time after vaccination status
Perhaps most importantly, data by age show that vaccinations have the highest continued efficacy against serious illness for the older and probably more vulnerable age groups.
The efficacy rate for people 65 years and older is 97.1% for the most recent week of the study (December 13), which is actually higher than the efficacy rate for the comparable week one month earlier (95.9%). It could also reflect higher booster rates for this population. In comparison, the effect against hospitalization has decreased slightly (93.8% from 94.5%) for those aged 50 to 64 and 18 to 49 (94.1% from 95%).
The group of 65 and older also have higher vaccine efficacy now against infections than they had in the week of 15 November (93.3% at present, up from 90.6%). The effect against infections has decreased, again marginally, for the 50-to-64 group (77.3% from 79%). New Yorkers ages 18 to 49 have seen the largest declines in vaccine effectiveness against infection (66.4% in the past week, down from 76.6% on November 15).
The data support repeated assurances from Hochul, Mayor Bill de Blasio and public health experts such as CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky and Dr. Anthony Fauci that there is no overwhelming need to panic. While the rising numbers are scary for many, the omicron wave should peak very high and very fast, and then stop, they say.
The first U.S. omicron case was reported on December 1st. It took the highly mutated variant less than three weeks to establish its dominance in America. United and Delta airlines have been forced to cancel holiday flights due to high staff infections, and hospital managers say they are wary of staff shortages for similar reasons – and far more than they are concerned about an influx of sick people.
Omicron’s infectivity alone takes important workers out of play – and nowhere is the transmission more evident than in the New York area.
The CDC estimates that more than 90% of current cases in the New York area – one that includes New York, New Jersey, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands for its genomic monitoring purposes – are the omicron strain. That’s a 25% increase from last week.
As Hochul said this week, the winter rise is upon us, and New Yorkers should expect cases to continue to rise. But they can also expect to reduce their chances of serious COVID-related illness through vaccinations and boosters.
95 percent of all adults in New York have received at least one vaccine dose, Hochul said Friday. She called it a milestone.
“The best gift you can give yourself and your loved ones this holiday season is protection against COVID-19,” the governor added. “Encourage your friends and family members to do their part and mask and exercise caution when in indoor public spaces. Let’s all get through this and enjoy a safe and healthy holiday season.”
NBC New York’s Checkey Beckford reports.
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