Grain growers will harvest Australia’s largest crop ever this year, according to federal government forecasts.
Key points:
- Government forecasts ABARES expects a record-high winter grain harvest this year
- Growers dealing with floods and heavy rains fear they will miss out on historically high prices
- Damaged crops will be downgraded and sold at lower prices
But there are fears that recent rains and floods in the eastern states will mean farmers are missing out on historically high prices.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences expects 58.4 million tonnes to be harvested for the 2021-22 season, driven by record production in Western Australia and the second largest crop expected in New South Wales.
It has not yet estimated the value of crop production.
ABARE’s CEO Jared Greenville says rainfall throughout the year had driven production, which is expected to be up 5 percent compared to last year’s bumper harvest.
“It’s basically because of the weather,” said Dr. Greenville.
“We have had good conditions on the west coast, and good conditions on the east coast … [because of that] we are looking at the largest winter crop ever produced in Australia. “
ABARES expects a record wheat crop of 34.4 million tonnes to be harvested.
Despite trade lost due to sanctions imposed by China, ABARES said Australia’s second largest barley crop will be harvested at 13.3 million tonnes and a further 5.7 million tonnes of rapeseed are expected.
That’s 27 percent more than the previous record set last year.
Rain, floods to reduce yields for growers in the east
With grain growers in NSW and southern Queensland struggling to harvest due to recent rainfall and floods, there are fears that some crops may be lost or will be significantly downgraded.
Dr. Greenville said the rains had “taken the shine off in some areas” and that it was likely that grain that was expected to be sold for human consumption would now be sold to livestock at a cheaper price.
NSW grain broker Machallie McCormack said the drought in other grain-producing countries has driven global prices and that Australian farmers had hoped to monetize historically high prices this harvest.
“This year we’ve had the good fortune to go into this harvest with the potential for a great crop with good prices; it looked really good until the rain started to fall,” McCormack said.
“We’ve just had rainfall every week for the last three or four weeks, especially in northern NSW and southern Queensland … which is great if you’re a grazer, but for croppers it has not been the best news,” she said.
Ms McCormack said the situation “still changed daily”, but the industry had begun to see the downgrading of a lot of crops due to recent east coast rains.
Ms McCormack said it was likely that growers would still harvest most of the grain, but yields would be reduced with grain downgraded.
“There’s a lot of disappointment out there; as much as we still have tons and there’s an item that can still be sold, it’s not as good as it could have been,” McCormack said.
“So it’s the loss of what could have been … which is agriculture in many respects.”
Belts in Western Australia
According to ABARES, Western Australia – the country’s largest grain-growing state – is expected to harvest a record 21.2 million tonnes of grain this harvest.
For Mark Flannagan, who farms with his brother John, at Pindar about 140 km east of Geraldton, the 2021-22 growing season has been one out of the box.
“It’s a big one,” Mr Flannagan said midway through his harvest.
Recognizing that there is still a “long way to go” before the harvest ends for the year, Mr Flanagan said producers in his community were optimistic.
“We are very happy. You can not complain; the prices are good, most are very, very happy.”
Sir. Flannagan said good summer rains followed by unusual rainfall in July had helped his harvest this year.
“In July it just kept raining and raining and we thought it would never stop raining but it stopped in August …. Eventually we managed to drink the water and finish the crop and the quality is good, and the yield is very up “.
“We’re probably sitting somewhere at 3-3.5 tonnes per hectare on average, and we would normally say that 2-2.5 tonnes per hectare is unusual, so we’re clearly over that.”
Sir. Flannagan said this would be a year to remember.
“Sometimes you wonder what you’re doing out here, but every now and then you get one (a harvest) that’s pretty good … You need a good one now again to keep you interested.”
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