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Ottawa is likely to see new capacity constraints on restaurants, bars and indoor gatherings in the coming days, as the Omicron variant continues to increase the number of cases of COVID-19.
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Ottawa Health Officer Dr. Vera Etches said Thursday that she is ready to order new restrictions to help curb the rapid spread of Omicron in the community – unless the province acts first. It’s a possibility, she suggested.
“This is a provincial challenge. There is a possibility that we will see more action there.” Talks with the province, she said, are underway.
Her comments came amid sober projections and calls for stronger public health measures from the province’s scientific advisory table.
“This is likely to be the worst wave of the pandemic,” said Adalsteinn Brown, head of the Ontario Science Advisory Table.
He released new models from the advisory body showing that the daily number of cases in Ontario could peak at a record 10,000 in the coming days, and intensive care units could become “unsustainable” in early January without an immediate “circuit breaker” to slow down. the highly contagious variant. That would require people to reduce their contacts by 50 percent, he said.
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Vaccinations are crucial, Brown said, but they will not be enough alone to make a significant difference in the days and weeks to come.
“This is a very, very challenging situation. It’s incredibly urgent because of the speed at which (Omicron) is spreading.”
Some public health officials have expressed frustration that the province is not doing more to reduce the spread as the situation quickly becomes more serious.
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Doug Ford announced an emergency vaccination flash to get third doses to millions of Ontario residents over the next two weeks in response to Omicron. Third doses are significantly more effective against the variant, which is able to avoid immunity from vaccines and previous infections. Ford also reduced the capacity of major venues such as hockey arenas by 50 percent from Saturday.
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But the province, which has recently left it to local health units to impose new pandemic restrictions, did not lower capacity limits in restaurants, bars and at indoor gatherings, something that was requested by public health officials from across the province as part of the Omicron response.
On Thursday, Etches said she was in discussions with the province’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore and sought input from business organizations prior to ordering new restrictions in Ottawa if necessary.
“This is really hard,” she said. “That’s not what we wanted for companies at this time of year.”
The city of Ottawa is also taking steps to build vaccination capacity – even redirecting public health workers from other important programs to lend a hand.
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As of next Monday, when the province opens booster doses to anyone over 18 three months after their last shot, 750,000 Ontario residents will be eligible for a third dose. This week, when people over 50 became eligible, it was hard for many to get times. Etches said the city, with the help of primary care nurses, paramedics, hospitals, pharmacists and more, is working to speed it up. The challenge is not vaccines that are available – it is to find enough immunizers.
Meanwhile, Ottawa Public Health is approaching capacity to its testing capabilities as cases continue to rise. On Wednesday, 6,344 COVID-19 laboratory tests were performed in Ottawa. The capacity is 8,421.
“Omicron is changing the game,” Etches said, adding that OPH is looking at other options, including take-home samples, to handle growing capacity. Moore said this week that the use of rapid tests may be on the table if cases continue to grow and there is not enough capacity to provide everyone with a laboratory-based PCR test.
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Etches acknowledged that “vaccination is not enough” to quickly make a significant difference in Ontario.
Brown from the science table said other steps need to be taken to slow down the spread of Omicron until enough people have the third, first or second dose to make a difference.
The modeling from the science table painted a bleak picture of the possible situation in Ontario.
Without further action to reduce transmission, cases in the province will peak 10,000 as early as next week, according to the advisory group’s modeling. A “circuit breaker” that reduces social contacts by at least 50 percent could bring the daily number of cases below the historic high of 5,000 a day in the province. But it’s a big order during the holiday season.
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Brown countered claims by some that the Omicron variant is so mild that cases will have minimal impact.
He cited recent data from Denmark, which suggests that Omicron is just as virulent as Delta, based on hospitalizations there. Although significantly less virulent than Delta, hospitals will face ever-increasing pressure without additional public health measures, simply because it is so contagious.
Brown said the county should administer between 250,000 and 350,000 vaccinations a day and see a significant reduction in social contacts.
Even these measures would only blunt, not significantly limit, the impact of rising Omicron cases.
The scientific table predicted that even if Omicron turns out to be 25 percent less severe than the Delta variant, there would be 500 patients in the intensive care unit in the province in early January without further action. With a power switch, it would be reduced to about 300 patients.
Ottawa hospitals have escalation plans for an increase in Omicron-related hospitalizations, Etches said, but it’s challenging because most already have over 100 percent capacity and are trying to catch up with delayed surgeries and procedures.
Brown urged people to get boosters, wear high-quality, well-fitting masks, increase ventilation, take physical distance and avoid large gatherings.
Etchings also encouraged smaller gatherings and limited contacts.
“The smaller, the better,” she said of holiday gatherings.
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