Joe Manchin’s re-election plans are towering as Democrats woo his critical vote

Manchin, 74, is keenly aware that his voice will resonate for years along the campaign track and across American society – with major implications for his party’s choices, Biden’s first term and for many voters who support social expansion. safety net.

But his handling of the bill could also be a central part of his own narrative of re-election, a reason why even his close allies believe he has endured withered criticism from the left as he has tried to cut the bill back, calling for a break, and has still not committed to supporting it as party leaders try to get the bill done before Christmas.

But just as Manchin campaigned as the lone Democrat to support Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court in 2018 – when he achieved a three-point victory in the deep red state – his ally presumes he can do the same if he is the lone Democrat to think Biden’s multi-trillion agenda to review health care, education, housing, childcare and climate change policies and tax legislation. Still, it would lead to huge setbacks from even his own core supporters, while at the same time rejecting Biden’s message of re-election in 2024.

For now, Manchin states that he still plans to see if he can get a deal with the president, whom he considers a friend and an honest mediator, even though he has criticized the bill for many of its policies, its price tag in the midst of inflationary pressures and the fact that it requires temporary programs, which he believes will eventually become permanent against his will.

In an interview, Manchin denied that his re-election decision would affect his deliberations on whether to support the Build Back Better plan, which could cost about $ 2 trillion. But he made it clear that another race may be in the cards.

“I’m considering it,” Manchin told CNN when asked to run again. “I do not rule anything out.”

Asked if that consideration affects his view of the bill, Manchin said: “I have always been there for my constituents. I respond to the people I work for: West Virginians.”

And he also indicated that his voters might not want the bill at all.

“There are challenges,” Manchin said of his constituents. “Let’s put it this way.”

His potential opponents follow his positioning very closely.

“West Virginia was Donald Trump’s second largest state in the country,” Rep. Alex Mooney, a Republican who is considered a potential opponent of Manchin in 2024. “And every time Manchin does something that is conservative, like opposing Build Back Better, the people will support it. If he does something, there is more Liberally, as Build Back Better is liberal, I do not think voters would support it. “

Asked if he could challenge Manchin, Mooney said: “I’m not making hypothetical questions. I have to win on May 10,” referring to his primary GOP election against another sitting House Republican.

Yet Manchin is already preparing. He already has over $ 5.3 million in his campaign war chest for 2024, though he says he will not make a final decision until after the 2022 election next fall.

Asked if he believes he could be re-elected if he voted for the bill, Manchin said: “I never think about legislation based on, ‘Will I be re-elected or will I be defeated because I am voting for something?’ I vote for something because I can either explain it or I can not. That’s my litmus test. “

Manchin said he did not yet know if he could explain this bill to the West Virginians, as the bill is still under negotiation and drafting, although the broad outlines – and many of its detailed details – have been known for several months.

“Until you see the final draft, you do not know what to do,” Manchin told CNN.

GOP senator Shelley Moore Capito, a West Virginia junior senator who, along with Manchin, helped deliver Biden’s $ 1.2 billion infrastructure law, said her Democratic counterpart’s voting record is “always under control.”

“It’s not popular,” Capito said of Biden’s social spending package. And, she added, about Manchin: “I think many of the green energy problems that are in there that he has obviously been working on are very harmful. I think it will be difficult for him, but he sees to be able to take up the challenge. ”

West Virginia’s sharp shift to the right

As a Democrat elected throughout the country, Manchin is a rarity in a state he has seen suddenly shift from blue to red.

In 2008, West Virginia re-elected overwhelming Democrats: Manchin to governor, Jay Rockefeller to Senate, Nick Rahall and Alan Mollohan to two of the state’s three seats in the House. Its second senator, the late Robert Byrd, was a Democrat in his last term, setting the record for the longest-serving member of the House.

Manchin is the only one left in office. After Trump’s 39-point victory over Biden, registered Republicans in the state were finally more than the Democrats as their numbers continued with a long decline.

But Manchin is the exceptional Democrat who is capable of victory when the National Party strikes a blow, built in part by tearing down it and the city he has worked in since his first Senate election in 2010. In a campaign ad from 2018, Manchin said, “Washington stinks;” in 2010, he cut an ad that showed him shooting the Democrats’ global warming bill with a rifle.

“Well, he only won by three last time, and so I think everyone is vulnerable,” Capito said when asked if Manchin would be threatened in 2024. “Clearly, the trend is reversed politically, but – there is a big but there – Manchin has a great history as a good fighter and very popular. “

In fact, back home in West Virginia, Manchin is known for holding court for hours at a grocery store or gas station – and talking to voters of all political persuasions.

But in 2024, the equation for Manchin may be different. And if he decides not to stand, most people think that there is virtually no chance that another Democrat can hold the seat.

Former West Virginia Republican Party chairman Conrad Lucas said the Republican registration advantage will only continue to grow into 2024, a presidential year that could boost the GOP even more.

“If Manchin runs, he’s going to have to make a strong inroad with the Republicans,” Lucas said.

While progressives are looking to see if anyone can accept the senator, Manchin’s re-election is likely to depend not only on traditional West Virginia Democrats, but Republicans who know him well and are happy that he has lowered the overall Build Back Better bill price with trillions of dollars.

“He still holds the values ​​of our state close to his heart and is for me to be the voice of reason within the democratic caucus of the US Senate,” said former State Senate President Bill Cole, a Republican.

Whether Manchin runs or not, his seat will be the Republicans’ best pick-up option in 2024. Republicans hold all other nationwide offices and are already looking forward to the race.

“I think you would be hard pressed to find an elected official who has not considered it at the moment,” Lucas said.

But even if he ends up voting for the bill, Manchin is likely to claim that he helped reduce the price tag – which was originally at $ 3.5 trillion, while killing provisions that could have caused problems for him in his state, such as a cleaning energy standard designed to combat climate change but would affect coal companies in West Virginia. And he could campaign on childcare provisions, such as universal pre-K, something he has praised for its inclusion in the bill.

Late. John Cornyn, the Texas Republican, said many in his party are already grateful that Manchin and Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema have kept pace with certain demands that progressives have made so far.

“Well, all I can tell you is that Senator Sinema similarly enjoys pretty high favorable ratings, even among Republicans, for getting rid of some of the more violent taxes,” Cornyn said. “So I mean, they both seem to be pretty popular.”

CNN’s Morgan Rimmer contributed to this report.

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