The UK will have more than a million Omicron cases by the end of this month, if current trends remain unchanged – but booster jabs provide 70-75% protection against symptomatic infection, says the Health Security Agency.
The UKHSA said in a statement: “It is expected that if current trends remain unchanged, the UK will exceed one million infections by the end of this month.”
It said that analysis of 581 people with confirmed Omicron showed that AstraZeneca and Pfizer / BioNtech jabs provided “much lower levels of protection against symptomatic infection compared to the protection they provide against Delta”.
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But it added: “Preliminary data showed that efficacy against the new variant appears to increase significantly in the early period after a booster dose, providing about 70-75% protection against symptomatic infection.
“Due to the early nature of the results, all estimates are subject to significant uncertainty and are subject to change.”
“The efficacy of the vaccine against Omicron’s serious disease is not yet known, but it is expected to be significantly higher than protection against symptomatic disease,” the statement continued, adding “data on this will not be available for several weeks.”
The UKHSA also estimated that if Omicron continues to grow at current speeds, it will “become the dominant strain, accounting for more than 50% of all COVID-19 infections in the UK by mid-December”.
It said evidence continues to show that the new variant transmits “faster than the dominant Delta variant”, with studies of households and contacts finding that there is a “higher risk of transfer to contacts from an Omicron case” .
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Sky News’ Tom Clark asks if the forced mask wearing and use of the NHS COVID-19 app will be enough to make a difference to spread.
Omicron cases rise sharply by 448 and all coronavirus infections top 58,000 in the latest UK daily figures
In response to the latest data, Health Minister Sajid Javid urged people to get booster jab.
“They are our best defense and we have put the turbo on our rollout program, which invites seven million more people over the age of 40 to have their booster jab, so even more people get protection against this disease,” he said.
“I urge you to come forward as soon as you are entitled to help keep yourself and your loved ones safe.”
Dr. Mary Ramsay, head of immunization at UKHSA, said: “These early estimates should be treated with caution, but they indicate that a few months after the second jab, there is a greater risk of catching the Omicron variant compared to the Delta strain.
“The data suggest that this risk is significantly reduced after a booster vaccine, so I urge everyone to take up their booster when they are eligible.
“We expect the vaccines to show higher protection against the serious complications of COVID-19, so if you have not yet received your first two doses, please book an appointment immediately.
“Working from home where possible, consistently wearing masks in overcrowded or enclosed spaces, washing your hands regularly and insulating and being tested if you feel uncomfortable is also crucial to reducing the impact of COVID-19 this winter.”
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