We hear a lot about the “post-American world”, but we now also get a glimpse of “Pax Sinica”. The unrest in the Solomon Islands shows us what happens when the balance of power changes and security and order can no longer be guaranteed.
Pictures of burning buildings and people looting are a wake-up call. Chinese companies are being targeted as anger rises against Beijing’s growing influence in the country.
The Solomon Islands has shifted its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to mainland China. The Pacific Islands are more generally at the forefront of Xi Jinping’s vision of the China Dream: China as the unsurpassed regional power.
Now Australia has been drawn in, sending police and troops in to help restore order.
It reminds us of how unstable our region is and how what is happening in the wider Indo-Pacific will define global security in the 21st century.
What happens when old collateral is changed?
More than 20 years ago, international affairs expert Charles Kupchan warned that we should prepare for the end of the Pax Americana. He said the story gave sober lessons about what happens when old certainties are changed.
At the time, China was still far from competing with the United States, and Kupchan was less focused on the Beijing threat than the United States’ willingness and capacity to govern a global order. He said nations will have to adapt; the main challenge would be “to accustom Europe and East Asia of their excessive dependence on the current hegemon”.
What has happened since? The 9/11 terrorist attacks triggered endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the global financial crisis plunged large parts of the world and America into deep recession, and the United States has become more and more bitterly divided.
Today – after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the disruption and often violent upheaval that characterized the Trump presidency – America appears to be a tired and limited power. Joe Biden is trying to reassure allies that America is back, but the United States cannot project its power in ways it once could.
We can make you rich. We do not care to set you free
And all the while China is continuing to rise. It is already the world’s largest engine for economic growth and will soon surpass America as the world’s largest economy.
Xi Jinping seizes the moment to strike hard at home, crushing disagreement while expanding China’s interest abroad. He has shown that he wants to intimidate nations and use trade as both a lure and a weapon.
What does a Pax Sinica look like? Well, certainly no commitment to universal standards of human rights. China does not seek alliances as much as transactions. Therefore, projects such as the massive belt and road initiative and infrastructure and investment span 70 countries, which in 2040 are expected to increase global GDP by seven trillion dollars a year.
China promises the world what it promises its own people: we can make you rich, we do not care to make you free.
The Beijing consensus would be less about interfering in other countries’ internal issues than about influencing results that suit China. Simply put: nations can do what they want – suppress freedom, undermine democracy – as long as Beijing gets its way.
Has China already won?
There are already those who accept this new world order. Former Singapore diplomat and author Kishore Mahbubani has asked if China has already won. He claims that it is “completely natural” for China to seek greater recognition and respect. Maybe that.
Mahbubani says the United States must learn to share power with China. But we must ask at what price? Where does the West draw the line?
Taiwan is a hotspot. There is increasing talk of war in Beijing, Canberra and Washington. Australian Shadow Foreign Secretary Penny Wong has accused Defense Secretary Peter Dutton of talking dangerously about conflicts.
But when Xi Jinping says he reserves the right to conquer Taiwan by force and escalates military exercises over the island, then the prospect of war cannot be ignored.
This week, Australian China observer and defense analyst Hugh White said we were in “an acute strategic crisis”. He said we have to ask what the price of war would be. If the world wants to maintain a global order, White argued, then war is not the answer.
As he warned: “When the war starts, that order is likely to be completely destroyed.” But his answer is not to confront China. White said that while our values matter and we may prefer to live under a US-led order, we must ask, “are we willing to go to war with China over that?”
That is where we are: a struggle for global order, the prospect of war and whether democracy is worth fighting for at all.
That is why the Solomon Islands matter
Australia is in line with this big shift. It’s frozen out of Beijing, which is also making a big play of power in Australia’s own backyard Pacific Islands.
That is why the Solomon Islands matter.
This is a great battlefield. Altogether, the South Pacific spans 13 million people and more than a dozen nations. It is one of the fastest growing regions in the world and is facing existential crises as the impact of climate change.
Since the end of World War II, the region has taken American power for granted. The United States has guaranteed stability in the region. Not anymore.
China has surpassed Australia in terms of two-way trade with Pacific island nations. In the Solomon Islands, two-way trade with China now accounts for almost half of the island nation’s total trade.
China has increased its aid to the region. It is building infrastructure, and there has been strong speculation about China’s ambitions to develop military bases.
The Brookings Institution has assessed China’s growing influence and says “it certainly contributes to anchoring systems of corruption and protection”. It warns that “the possibility, if it ever existed, of keeping China out of the region is long gone.”
It says this requires “consistent determination” from the West. Australia is crucial. It is still the largest donor and has the largest diplomatic reach. Brookings says it’s a matter of resources versus determination. China has the resources – the riches to tempt and influence nations. Does the West have the will?
That’s what Australia’s presence in the Solomon Islands is all about: responding to a friend’s request and showing its willingness not to surrender to the region.
Stan Grant presents China Tonight on Monday at 9.35pm on ABC TV, Tuesday at 8pm on ABC News Channel and on iview.
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