By Tarek Amara and Tom Perry
TUNIS – President Kais Saied appears to be like heading in the right direction to tighten his grip on Tunisia by way of a constitutional referendum in July, nevertheless it might show to be a poisoned chalice because the economic system sinks deeper into disaster and opposition to his rule widens.
Practically a yr since Saied started amassing energy, the July 25 referendum is extensively anticipated to spice up his authority, in what critics see as a march to one-man rule that has unpicked the democratic good points of Tunisia’s 2011 “Arab Spring” rebellion.
For Saied, overhauling the 2014 structure is a corrective to political dysfunction which had troubled Tunisia since autocrat Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was toppled. Saied, elected in 2019, guarantees to guard freedoms and says he's no dictator regardless of dissolving parliament and ruling by decree.
However fearing the worst, his opponents will boycott the vote, a protest that makes it extra probably the referendum will move. They count on steps to strengthen the presidency and additional weaken parliament and the judiciary.
Whereas Saied has centered a lot of his efforts on remaking Tunisian politics, critics say the previous regulation professor has failed to handle a extra urgent downside: the economic system.
Anger at financial malaise and political squabbling led many Tunisians to welcome his energy seize final yr.
However hardship has deepened since then, with a fifth of the workforce unemployed and poverty increased than earlier than the Arab Spring.
Delays in public sector salaries and difficulties in paying for wheat shipments have pointed to a squeeze on state funds.
Inflation has hit a report 7.8%.
“The disaster is rising and if it continues, the explosion is imminent,” Nejib Chebbi, who heads the primary anti-Saied coalition informed Reuters, urging nationwide dialogue to stop “imminent collapse”.
Saied’s workplace didn't reply to a message searching for remark for this story. He has beforehand mentioned he's making an attempt to avoid wasting the economic system, blamed corruption for the decline, and promised to get better funds he says had been stolen by elites – statements dismissed by opponents as populist rhetoric.
“LOOMINGCATASTROPHE“
Regardless of pressures on Saied, Tarek Megerisi of the European Council on International Relations suppose tank mentioned he anticipated the referendum to go forward and the structure to move, noting there was no minimal required turnout.
Saied “will then be confronted with a looming financial disaster. He doesn’t have the help or the governance nouse to construct a brand new political system, and when the economic system collapses, you gained’t have a political system that may salvage it.”
With just some weeks to go, there may be little to point the most important political second forward. There aren't any billboards promoting the referendum. The proposed structure ought to be printed on Thursday, beneath a timetable set by Saied.
Omar Boutara, 20, who sells used garments in a poor a part of the capital, mentioned he didn’t even know in regards to the referendum. “Younger persons are misplaced right here,” he mentioned.
Marwen El Marweni, 28 and unemployed, mentioned he can barely afford to eat and desires to to migrate to Europe. “Poverty sticks to us” and nothing will change with Saied’s structure, he mentioned.
The economic system has suffered a number of blows. The pandemic hammered very important tourism, earlier than the Ukraine battle drove up gas and meals costs, worsening monetary pressures.
Unemployment was round 18% final yr.
The federal government hopes to safe a $4 billion mortgage in talks with the IMF resulting from begin in weeks, in return for reforms together with wage freezes. With out reforms, the finance minister says Tunisia could also be unable to repay its money owed.
However the bailout plan has hit opposition from the highly effective UGTT union, which rejects the reforms, paralysed Tunisia with a June 16 strike and vows additional motion. The UGTT has but to take a stance on the referendum.
“NO DEMOCRACY“
Saied’s strikes have prompted concern within the West, which regarded to Tunisia as the one success of the Arab Spring that elsewhere led to battle and renewed repression.
For his opponents, together with the Islamist Ennahda social gathering, the referendum appears to be like set to mark one other blow. They've been on the again foot since final yr, decrying Saied’s actions as a coup however struggling to counter him.
Including to hypothesis the brand new structure will clip the wings of parliament and the judiciary, Saied has mentioned it can outline “jobs” slightly than “powers”, suggesting a diminished standing for each.
He has additionally signalled adjustments to language about Islam, with a phrase which Islamists have lengthy argued defines Islam because the state faith to get replaced with one saying that Islam is the faith of the “umma”, a reference to the Muslim world.
Banned beneath Ben Ali, Ennahda moved to the guts of energy after 2011. However it now sees early indicators of a crackdown – one thing Saied’s opponents have lengthy feared however which has not materialised in a significant means.
Former prime minister Hamadi Jebali, as soon as an Ennahda member, was held for 4 days in June, over what his lawyer mentioned had been accusations of cash laundering, and a transfer Jebali mentioned was politically motivated.
The Inside Ministry has declined to touch upon his arrest.
Judges have equally denounced as political Saied’s sacking of dozens of judges accused of corruption and defending alleged terrorists.
Ali Laryeadh, one other former prime minister of Ennahda, mentioned Tunisia was in disaster final yr, however with “no democracy” and poverty getting worse, “we're in a catastrophe now.”
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